核心矛盾仍是供过于求 纯碱短期下行趋势难改

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash market has been experiencing a downward trend in prices since late April, currently stabilizing around 1150 yuan/ton, with some traders anticipating a potential rebound due to historically low prices [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary issue in the soda ash industry remains oversupply, with ongoing capacity expansion and no clear plans for capacity reduction, indicating that a market reversal will take time [1] - Short-term production is affected by declining profits, leading to some maintenance schedules being moved forward to March and May, resulting in fewer planned maintenance activities during the traditional peak in July and August [1] - Unless profits continue to decline or inventory pressures increase, production reductions this summer may be limited, with production fluctuations expected to be less pronounced compared to historically low-profit years like 2020 [1] Demand Factors - The recent decline in photovoltaic glass prices has raised expectations for production cuts, which in turn suppresses soda ash demand [1] - By July 2024, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to peak and decline, posing significant downward pressure on soda ash prices [1] - Despite a nearly 20% increase in daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass since the beginning of the year, the current weakening trend, combined with poor profitability in both float glass and photovoltaic glass sectors, makes it difficult for soda ash demand to gain positive support [1] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Without substantial production cuts on the supply side, soda ash prices are unlikely to change their downward trend, although there may be short-term trading opportunities based on changes in the inventory levels of spot and futures traders [2] - In a low-profit environment, soda ash producers have a weak incentive to lower prices, and new downward price movements may require guidance from futures prices [2] - The previous long-term contango in futures has led to significant inventory depletion among spot traders, and if the basis improves, there may be short-term trading opportunities, but overall industry reversal will still depend on substantial improvements in supply-demand dynamics [2]