美联储研究：仍未摆脱“零利率下限”可能性，利率降至零的概率为9%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve cannot assume that its benchmark loan rate will not drop back to zero, with a long-term probability of 9% for this scenario [1][3]. Group 1: Research Findings - The probability of the federal funds rate reaching the so-called "zero lower bound" (ZLB) within the next seven years is estimated at 9% [1]. - The current high uncertainty surrounding interest rates has increased the risk of hitting the ZLB, similar to levels observed in 2018 [1][3]. - Empirical evidence suggests that changes in interest rate expectations are the main driver of ZLB risk [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The Federal Reserve first lowered rates to the 0%-0.25% range during the 2008 financial crisis to stimulate the economy, maintaining this level for seven years [3]. - Rates were again reduced to zero during the COVID-19 pandemic and remained there for two years [3]. - There has been skepticism among policymakers and economists regarding whether post-pandemic inflation and economic growth indicate a departure from the ZLB risk, but recent research indicates that this risk still exists [3].