Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-07-08 01:39Group 1: Tariff and Economic Impact - The U.S. has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1, with new tax rates announced for 14 countries, impacting market expectations and causing a sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds [1] - The current U.S. economy faces challenges such as declining GDP, high effective tax rates, and record fiscal and trade deficits, leading to speculation about potential tariff reductions [2] - The volatility in policy expectations, particularly regarding tariffs, is a significant factor behind the recent decline in U.S. stocks, with predictions of a further 5% adjustment if tariff threats remain unresolved [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a "mini-stagflation shock" in the U.S. economy, with core PCE potentially reaching 3.5% by year-end, and suggests that the Fed may not lower interest rates until December [3] - Despite concerns about stagflation, corporate earnings remain strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting a 13% year-over-year profit increase, indicating resilience in certain sectors [3] Group 3: HBM Market Dynamics - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to experience supply-demand tightness until 2027, driven by AI chip demand and technological advancements [7] - Major players like SK Hynix and Micron dominate the HBM market, which is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 90% from $2.3 billion in 2022 to $30 billion by 2026 [7] Group 4: Japanese Economic Challenges - Japan's real wages have seen a significant decline of 2.9% year-over-year, the largest drop in 20 months, indicating challenges in consumer purchasing power despite a rise in consumer spending [9][10] - The disparity in wage growth between unionized and non-unionized workers highlights structural imbalances in the Japanese economy, which may be further impacted by U.S. tariff policies [10][11]