预计2025年用电量增长5% 迎峰度夏电力供需平衡偏紧

Core Insights - The report predicts a 5% increase in national electricity consumption in 2025, reaching 10.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, driven by growth in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential usage [1][2] - The report highlights a divergence in electricity consumption trends, with traditional industries facing pressure while emerging sectors are on the rise [2][3] Industry Analysis - The electricity consumption in the black metal and building materials industries is expected to decline slightly by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, while the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries will see modest growth of 3.0% and 3.9% [2] - New infrastructure, particularly 5G base stations, is projected to add over 30 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity consumption, with data centers expected to increase their consumption by approximately 37 billion kilowatt-hours, reaching over 160 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - The electric vehicle charging and swapping services are anticipated to increase their electricity consumption by about 19 billion kilowatt-hours, totaling 102 billion kilowatt-hours [2] Regional Insights - The North China, East China, and Southern Power Grid regions are expected to contribute over 65% to the growth in electricity consumption, with the Southern Power Grid leading in growth rate [2] Supply Side Analysis - The report forecasts that the newly installed power generation capacity will reach 660 million kilowatts in 2025, a 53.2% increase from the previous year, marking a historical high [2] - The new capacity will include 127 million kilowatts from thermal power and a combined 520 million kilowatts from wind and solar energy [2] Climate Impact - The report indicates that climate change will increasingly affect electricity consumption, with higher temperatures expected during peak summer periods leading to tighter supply-demand balance [3] - Recommendations include enhancing collaboration between government and enterprises, establishing a refined data center electricity consumption statistical system, and expanding green electricity supply channels [3]