焦炭：主流钢厂6月23日第四轮提降落地 焦化利润下行 价格接近阶段性底部

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices nearing a potential bottom as supply and demand dynamics shift [1][6]. Supply - As of July 3, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants is 644,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is stable at 475,000 tons, leading to a total production of 1.118 million tons per day, which is a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.4085 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 14,400 tons. This translates to a coking coal demand of 1.1469 million tons per day, with a supply-demand gap of 6,900 tons [4]. Inventory - Total coking coal inventory stands at 9.816 million tons, down 111,000 tons week-on-week. Independent coking plants hold 1.021 million tons, down 109,000 tons, while steel mills' inventory has increased by 97,000 tons to 6.375 million tons. Port inventory decreased by 99,000 tons to 2.42 million tons [5]. Price Trends - The main coking coal futures contract (2509) closed at 1,422.5, down 10.5 (-0.73%), while the far-month contract (2601) closed at 1,468.0, down 4.5 (-0.31%). The price gap has weakened to -46 [1]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal nationwide is -52 yuan, with regional variations: Shanxi at -38 yuan, Shandong at 1 yuan, Inner Mongolia at -91 yuan, and Hebei at 19 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - The market is showing signs of improvement as the fourth round of price reductions has been implemented, with cumulative reductions of 220-240 yuan per ton. The expectation of a bottoming out in prices is emerging, although demand is projected to decline due to potential environmental production limits in Tangshan [6].