原油：关税问题有所缓和 叠加利多因素带动盘面上涨

Market Overview - As of July 8, international oil prices increased due to extended trade negotiations and ongoing geopolitical concerns, with NYMEX crude futures rising to $67.93 per barrel (+1.39%) and ICE Brent futures reaching $69.58 per barrel (+1.87%) [1] - China's INE crude futures saw a decline to 501.3 yuan per barrel, followed by a night session increase to 512 yuan per barrel [1] Important News - Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, sold $1.66 billion worth of crude oil and fuel to Cuba in Q1, with an export volume of 19,600 barrels of oil and 2,000 barrels of oil products per day, slightly up from the previous half-year [2] - Unipetrol in the Czech Republic shut down several refining units due to significant power outages, affecting a total of 73,000 barrels per day [2] - Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is offering two batches of naphtha for July shipment, with a total of approximately 5,300 tons [2] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is expected to approve a significant production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September on August 3, following a previous increase of 138,000 barrels per day starting in April [3] - Despite a decline in oil prices, production increased by 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, with a total of 2.17 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts being lifted [3] Price Trends and Outlook - Domestic refined oil demand has underperformed expectations in the first half of the year, with gasoline demand showing some improvement during holidays, leading to a fluctuating price trend [3] - The expectation for the second half of the year is a potential decline in international oil prices, with domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices likely to trend lower [3] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policy adjustments, with concerns over supply disruptions in the Red Sea and temporary relief from U.S. tariff delays [4] - The summer travel peak in the U.S. is driving record gasoline consumption, offsetting concerns about economic impacts from potential tariffs [4] Short-term Strategy - A bullish outlook is suggested for the short term, with resistance levels for WTI at $68-$69, Brent at $70-$71, and SC at 510-520 yuan [5]