Macro News - The Trump administration has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, and a tariff ranging from 25% to 40% on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Additionally, countries aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS nations will face an extra 10% tariff, with the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs extended to August 1 [1] - The European Union claims good progress in trade negotiations with the U.S., with Portugal's finance minister suggesting a potential agreement on very low tariffs, possibly below 10% [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.7%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 35.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 61.8%. The market anticipates one rate cut each in September and December this year [1] Central Bank Gold Purchases - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), reflecting an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Institutional Perspectives - Following the resilience shown in non-farm payrolls, the temporary extension of the tariff suspension to August 1 alleviated market risk sentiment. However, the announcement of new tariff levels on countries including Japan and South Korea, combined with China's continued gold purchases, has led to a robust performance in the precious metals market, showing a V-shaped rebound after a decline. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs suggests a baseline scenario of rising inflation and economic slowdown. Furthermore, with the advancement of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, the U.S. debt and deficit issues are likely to worsen, indicating that precious metals are expected to face upward pressure [1]
银河期货：美债务风险攀升 贵金属易涨难跌
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-08 03:47