欧洲央行警告通胀风险 政策宽松预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces risks of inflation remaining below the 2% target, prompting a need for continued supportive monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ECB has lowered interest rates by 200 basis points to a neutral level of 2% since June of the previous year, but the economic growth outlook remains bleak [2] - The ECB predicts inflation will stay below the target for 18 months starting from Q3 2025, with a return to the 2% target not expected until early 2027 [2] Group 2: Currency Impact - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.1741, with a 0.28% increase, which may further suppress inflation and pressure economic growth [1][2] - The euro is currently in an overbought state but maintains a long-term bullish trend, with the weekly chart showing higher highs and higher lows [2] Group 3: Risks and Support - Downside risks include cheap imports from China, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth, leading to limited upside risks overall [2] - The ECB's stance is supported by Germany's significant fiscal expansion plans, which are expected to provide a substantial boost to the economy [2]