美国经济在不确定性中艰难行进（环球热点）

Economic Performance - The final revision of the U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 shows a contraction of 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [1] - The contraction is attributed to downward adjustments in consumer spending and export data, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [2] - The manufacturing PMI has shrunk for four consecutive months, indicating a persistent downturn in the manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index dropped from 98.4 in May to 93.0 in June, falling short of expectations [3] - A survey revealed that 86% of respondents view the U.S. economy as "still unstable," and 58% believe a recession is "inevitable" [3] - Concerns over a potential recession have led 77% of surveyed individuals to change their consumption habits [3] Trade and Tariff Policies - The increase in imports suggests negative impacts from tariff measures on future expectations for related businesses [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the House is projected to increase the deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [6] - The bill aims to stimulate economic growth through expanded fiscal spending, but its effectiveness in promoting investment and innovation remains uncertain [7] Inflation and Economic Risks - Current tariff policies may reignite inflation and slow global economic growth, with a 40% probability of a recession in the U.S. in the latter half of the year [8] - The Federal Reserve faces significant pressure to manage inflation, which could exceed its control if tariff issues are not resolved [8] - Major institutions have lowered their growth forecasts for the U.S. economy, indicating widespread concern over economic stability [9]