【环球财经】关税不确定性下选择观望 澳大利亚央行维持基准利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, following a series of rate hikes and subsequent cuts since May 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBA has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points from May 2022 to November 2023, before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2023 [1]. - The decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was made with a majority vote of 6 to 3 [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the overall inflation rate falling to the midpoint of the target range of 2-3% in Q1 [2]. - The underlying inflation rate has also dropped to 2.9%, and the RBA anticipates that further rate cuts could bring it closer to the target midpoint [2]. - Recent CPI data suggests that inflation in Q2 may be slightly above expectations, prompting the RBA to wait for more information before making further decisions [2]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - While private demand appears to be recovering and household income is rising, some industries are struggling with weak demand and rising costs [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with labor supply constraints affecting business growth, and wage growth has decreased from peak levels [3]. - The RBA believes that inflation risks are balanced, but uncertainties in total demand and supply in the Australian economy warrant a cautious approach [3].