Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Defu Technology is a leader in the copper foil industry, with new opportunities arising from high-end electronic circuits and solid-state battery products. The company has been deeply involved in the copper foil sector for 40 years, starting with electronic circuit copper foil and gradually expanding into lithium battery copper foil. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 million yuan, marking a turnaround in profitability with a continuous upward trend in operations [1][2]. Group 2 - Electronic circuit copper foil: The domestic substitution of RTF (Reverse Copper Foil) and HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile Copper Foil) is expected, with carrier copper foil also likely to achieve breakthroughs. The cost of copper foil accounts for 42.10% of the cost of copper-clad laminates, which constitute 27.30% of the PCB cost. RTF and HVLP are mainstream products for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, currently dominated by suppliers from Japan and Taiwan. The company has potential for domestic substitution, with HVLP1-2 already in small-scale supply for projects like Nvidia and 400G/800G optical modules. HVLP3 has passed certification for Japanese copper-clad laminates and is expected to be released in 2025 for domestic computing board projects. Additionally, the company plans to acquire Luxembourg Copper Foil, a global leader in high-end IT copper foil, which has long-term collaborations with top global copper-clad laminate and PCB companies, potentially accelerating breakthroughs in high-end electronic circuit copper foil [1]. Group 3 - Lithium battery copper foil: The supply-demand situation is improving from 2023 to 2025, with effective industry capacity projected at 1.18 million tons in 2023, 1.45 million tons in 2024, and 1.52 million tons in 2025, while global demand is expected to be 610,000 tons, 830,000 tons, and 1.1 million tons respectively. The supply-demand gap is narrowing from 93% in 2023 to 38% in 2025, with limited new capacity expected in 2025. The company is actively developing new solid-state battery products such as atomized copper foil, microporous copper foil, and nickel-plated copper foil, all of which have achieved mass supply [2]. Group 4 - Profit forecast and investment suggestion: The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 112 million yuan, 312 million yuan, and 452 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 145.8%, 177.9%, and 44.8% respectively. Considering comparable companies and a valuation premium, a price-to-earnings ratio of 50x for the 2026 net profit is suggested, corresponding to a reasonable value of 24.77 yuan per share. The company is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating [2].
德福科技(301511)：锂电PCB铜箔双龙头 高端化勇攀高峰