港元汇率快速转弱，香港金管局两周四度入市干预，港元创最快强弱保证切换

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market due to the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) reaching the weak end of its peg against the US dollar, leading to significant market reactions and liquidity changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - On July 4, 2025, HKMA bought HKD 29.634 billion in a single day, marking the largest intervention since 2017, as the HKD hit the weak end of the peg at 7.85 [1][2]. - Over two weeks, HKMA's total purchases reached HKD 590.72 billion, reducing the banking system's aggregate balance to HKD 1,145.41 billion [1][2]. - The rapid switch from strong to weak peg within two months is attributed to multiple factors, including widening interest rate differentials and seasonal liquidity demands [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The interest rate differential between HKD and USD has widened significantly, with the overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) at 0.02982% compared to the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) at 4.4%, creating a 4.37 percentage point gap [5]. - The demand for HKD has decreased due to the end of the dividend season and reduced funding needs, contributing to the currency's weakness [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the HKD may continue to face pressure towards the weak end of the peg, especially if the interest rate differential remains large and arbitrage trading persists [8][10]. - However, there are expectations that the HKD's volatility will have a diminishing impact on the Hong Kong stock market in the medium to long term, as liquidity conditions stabilize and investor sentiment improves [12].