日本最大寿险公司预计超长期日债收益率将下降

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance, anticipates a gradual decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields due to improving demand and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The company expects the Japanese economy to slow down due to tariff impacts but does not foresee a recession [1] - Concerns about fiscal expansion are heightened due to increased US defense spending requests and the upcoming Japanese Senate elections [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market - There is a risk of rising interest rates, but the Ministry of Finance is reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which will narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to slow down the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting from April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [1] - An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may occur once in the second half of the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - If US-Japan negotiations falter and have significant economic impacts, there is a possibility that no interest rate hike will occur within the current fiscal year [1]