不降息！这国央行意外宣布

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach while monitoring inflation trends [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the current forecast suggesting a potential decline from 2.9% to a range of 2%-3% [2]. - The inflation rate in Australia for May was reported at 2.1%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [2]. - The RBA noted that while some sectors report weak demand, private domestic demand is gradually recovering, and real household income has improved [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The decision to hold rates steady surprised financial markets, as economists had anticipated a 25 basis point cut to 3.6% [5]. - Following the RBA's announcement, the Australian dollar rose by 0.79%, and the yield on the 3-year government bonds increased by 5 basis points to 3.42% [5]. - The S&P ASX200 index fell by 0.24% after the RBA's decision [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The RBA emphasized the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, indicating that it will closely monitor economic data and risks to guide future decisions [4]. - Market expectations suggest that unless the second-quarter inflation data significantly exceeds forecasts, the RBA may still consider rate cuts in its next meeting in August [5].