瑞银：特朗普推迟关税上调料使消费压力延后至2026年

Core Viewpoint - UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan indicates that the postponement of tariff increases by Trump to August 1 may delay the impact of these new tariffs on prices until 2026, rather than being felt fully before Christmas [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - The delay in tariff implementation means that consumers may not experience price increases during the holiday shopping season, which could alleviate some pressure on American consumers in the second half of the year [1] - Retailers typically stock up in advance for Christmas, and the entire supply chain process means that even if tariffs are implemented now, the actual price increases may be felt later [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The postponement of tariffs could help the White House avoid negative news during the year-end shopping season, but it does not prevent the eventual transmission of these tariffs to American households [1] - Donovan warns that this delay represents a significant tax burden on American consumers, and by the end of the year, inflation-adjusted real wages are expected to decline rather than increase, which will reveal the true economic issues [1]