全球海上风电步入关键转折期

Core Insights - The Global Wind Energy Council's report indicates that 2024 will see an addition of 8 GW of offshore wind capacity globally, marking the fourth highest year in history, with a total capacity reaching 83 GW by the end of 2024, enough to power 73 million households [2][3] - China remains the dominant force in global offshore wind capacity growth, contributing over 50% of new installations and maintaining a cumulative capacity share of 50.3%, solidifying its position as the world's largest offshore wind market [3][5] - Despite the growth in cumulative capacity, global new offshore wind installations are projected to decline by 26% year-on-year in 2024 due to macroeconomic challenges, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties in the investment landscape [5][6] Global Market Overview - By the end of 2024, the cumulative offshore wind capacity globally is expected to reach 83.2 GW, with China accounting for 50.47% of the new installations [3] - In Europe, four countries added nine offshore wind farms, contributing 2.7 GW of new capacity, with the UK being the largest market in Europe [3][4] - Floating wind technology is gaining attention, with a global installed capacity of 278 MW by the end of 2024, led by Norway, the UK, China, and France [4] Challenges in the Industry - The offshore wind sector faces significant headwinds in Europe and North America, including slow project approvals, unstable policies, and high costs, which have led to a downward revision of short-term installation forecasts [5][6] - In the US, policy changes and project cancellations have hindered offshore wind development, with only 174 MW of capacity installed by the end of last year [5] - In Europe, the "negative subsidy" auction mechanism has made projects more expensive and reduced the number of participating companies [6] Future Outlook - The Global Wind Energy Council anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 21% for offshore wind installations over the next decade, with a potential addition of approximately 350 GW by the end of 2034, bringing total capacity to 441 GW [7][8] - Record auction capacities and ongoing projects indicate a promising future for offshore wind, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is expected to account for 60% of new installations in the next decade [8] - Collaboration among developers, supply chain partners, and government entities is essential to unlock the full potential of offshore wind, requiring competitive and feasible auction mechanisms to minimize risks and ensure project delivery [8]