欧佩克+再次增产 对国际油价影响几何？

Group 1 - OPEC+ members decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1] - As of August, OPEC+ will have cumulatively increased production to 1.918 million barrels per day since April, leaving only 280,000 barrels per day to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction agreement [1] - UAE will be allowed to increase production by an additional 300,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - This marks the fourth consecutive month of increased oil supply from OPEC+, indicating a strategic shift from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "market share competition," which will intensify downward pressure on international oil prices in the second half of the year [2] - WTI crude oil futures experienced significant volatility in June, with a 21.80% increase from June 1 to June 20, followed by a sharp decline of 8.95% on June 23, leading to a 9.41% decrease in oil prices for the first half of the year [2] - As of July 8, WTI crude oil futures were priced at $67.55 per barrel, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 6% [2] Group 3 - The overall trend for international oil prices in the second half of the year is expected to be downward due to OPEC+'s continuous production increases and potential recovery pressures on global economic growth [3] - If OPEC+ proceeds with planned production increases in September, the risk of oversupply will heighten, especially if demand does not show significant growth [3] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies may further suppress oil demand, contributing to a greater likelihood of price declines in the second half of the year [3]