重阳问答︱如何看待港币流动性变化及其对港股的影响

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity changes in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) are a response to market dynamics and have significant implications for the Hong Kong stock market, with the fundamental economic conditions being a more critical factor than liquidity itself [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Changes - On June 26, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold US dollars and bought HKD to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate hitting the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD [1]. - On July 2, HKMA further withdrew 20.018 billion HKD from the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [1]. - The HKD is pegged to the USD, and the HKMA's actions are part of a system that maintains the exchange rate within a specified range, responding to market demand for HKD [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent liquidity withdrawal is a dynamic balance following excessive HKD liquidity injected in early May, which led to a significant increase in interbank liquidity from 44.6 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD [2]. - The overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) remained low at around 0.5% for two months, indicating a misjudgment in the demand for HKD by the banking system [2]. - The rapid expansion of the USD-HKD interest rate differential has led to increased carry trade activities, causing the HKD to touch the weak end of the peg within a month [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HKD liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals rather than liquidity levels [3]. - The current high interest rate differential of 3%-4% between USD and HKD is unlikely to persist, suggesting a gradual recovery of HKD liquidity and a rise in Hibor rates [3]. - The demand for HKD is expected to increase due to a weaker USD, inflows from the southbound trading, and a surge in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a positive outlook for the HKD liquidity situation [3].