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每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-07-08)
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-08 11:44

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, reflecting early signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and emerging deflationary forces [1] - Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 index target for the next 12 months by 11%, citing earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Fed and strong fundamentals of large-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 index's expected returns for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months have been adjusted to +3%, +6%, and +11% respectively, with new target levels set at 6,400, 6,600, and 6,900 points [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that U.S. trade negotiations are moving towards a tactical escalation, with potential increases in tariffs affecting Asian economies [2] - Mizuho Securities notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [3] - Nomura Securities suggests that clearer trade tariffs could help the market eventually rise, as new agreements may reduce uncertainty [5] Group 3 - Bank of America reports that improved Canada-U.S. relations and reduced tariff tensions are likely to benefit the Canadian banking sector [4] - OCBC Bank highlights that despite recent cooling measures in Singapore's real estate market, there remains potential for price and transaction volume increases [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with a terminal rate potentially dropping to 3.10% [8] Group 4 - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its cash rate in July, leaving the market to interpret future rate changes [9] - CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a new era driven by active trading and structural changes in asset and funding dynamics [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a turning point for IDC due to growing domestic and international demand for intelligent computing centers [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities identifies new investment opportunities in the upstream life sciences sector, driven by recovery in revenue growth and domestic substitution trends [9]