夏末市场“魔咒”警报拉响 德银警告：8月关税或引爆2025年波动狂潮

Group 1 - Investors are increasingly concerned about a new wave of volatility as summer approaches, with historical data indicating that the VIX tends to spike significantly in the third quarter [1] - Multiple potential risk points in 2025 could trigger another round of market shocks, including retaliatory tariffs in August that may impact inflation and lead to a reassessment of interest rate expectations [1][2] - Despite these concerns, the market has shown strong resilience this year, supported by robust macro fundamentals and a willingness from policymakers to adjust policies in response to market turbulence [1][3] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is not yet significant, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June and July will be closely monitored, as strong data could deter the Federal Reserve from rate cuts [2] - If tariffs are raised unexpectedly in August, it could trigger a new wave of selling in the market, especially if the initial tax rate is based on the previously implemented 10% benchmark [1][2] - Other potential risks include a collapse in economic growth resilience, rising fiscal concerns, and geopolitical shocks that could drive up oil prices, although the market has maintained resilience amid tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3]