债市下半年展望：预计维持震荡格局，三季度有配置窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by significant issuance expansion and interest rate volatility, with expectations of a fluctuating market in the second half [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Issuance and Structure - The total issuance in the bond market exceeded 27 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 24% [2]. - Interest rate bonds accounted for nearly 40% of the total issuance, with government bonds at 7.89 trillion yuan and local government bonds at 5.49 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 49.11%, which is 10.82 percentage points faster than the same period last year [2]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds surged, with government bonds net financing reaching 3.4 trillion yuan, approximately double that of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 30 basis points in the first quarter, reaching a high of 1.89% before falling to around 1.65% by the end of the second quarter, forming a "V" shape [3]. - The interbank 7-day pledged repo rate (DR007) decreased from approximately 2.3% at the beginning of the year to below 1.7%, indicating a shift from a "tight balance" to a "relatively loose" liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook for the Second Half - The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the second half, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the balance between supply pressure from interest rate bonds and expectations of monetary policy easing will influence market dynamics [4]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds in the second half is estimated to be around 6.88 trillion yuan, with a monthly average of 1.15 trillion yuan, close to the levels of the same period in 2023 [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a balanced investment approach, focusing on both short-term liquidity and long-term value in interest rate bonds, while capturing opportunities in a flattening yield curve [5]. - In the credit bond market, there is a positive trend with a focus on high-quality local government bonds, financially stable state-owned real estate companies, and stable city commercial bank secondary capital bonds [5]. - Investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their portfolios, managing duration risk while seizing structural opportunities across different varieties and maturities [5].