越南今年GDP或增8%，结构性挑战仍待解

Core Insights - Vietnam's economy is showing strong growth momentum, with a GDP growth of 7.96% in Q2 2025 and 7.52% in the first half of 2025, marking the highest level for the same period from 2011 to 2025 [1] - The government is implementing policies to achieve an annual growth target of 8%, with analysts predicting a growth rate of 8.42% in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Drivers - Vietnam is demonstrating resilience and diversified growth dynamics amid a reshaping global trade and financial landscape [3] - The country is capitalizing on its "demographic dividend," with a population of approximately 101.6 million, where over 67% are of working age [3] - The labor market is robust, with a labor participation rate of 53 million and an unemployment rate of 2.22% for the working-age population [3] - Average monthly income has risen to approximately $325, indicating positive trends in employment and income growth [3] - Exports are thriving, with June 2025 export figures reaching approximately $21.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [3] - Vietnam continues to attract foreign investment, particularly in manufacturing, bolstered by a new trade agreement with the U.S. that reduces tariffs on most Vietnamese exports to 20% [3] Risks and Challenges - Despite strong economic performance, Vietnam faces structural challenges, including high external dependency and vulnerability to global economic fluctuations [5][6] - The country is particularly reliant on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. reaching $142 billion, accounting for about 29% of total exports and approximately 30% of GDP [8] - The recent trade agreement, while beneficial, still poses risks due to potential uncertainties in execution and compliance with "origin" rules [8] - The World Bank forecasts a slowdown in Vietnam's export growth from 14% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2025, influenced by weakened demand from China and the U.S. [8] - Vietnam is at a critical juncture for industrial upgrading, needing to balance openness with domestic industry autonomy to maintain sustainable growth [9]