机构预计券商中报业绩延续高增

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the performance of listed securities firms is expected to continue the high growth trend seen in the first quarter, driven by multiple factors such as increased new account openings, a favorable bond and stock market, and strong overseas business from the Hong Kong market [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the A-share market transaction volume reached 162.65 trillion yuan, significantly higher than 100.94 trillion yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating active market trading [1] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in June was 1.65 million, a month-on-month increase of 6%, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts opened in the first half of the year, representing a growth of over 32% compared to 9.49 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The brokerage business is expected to see a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 32%, supported by a decline in bank deposit rates and favorable public fund policies [2] - The Hong Kong stock market has also contributed to the performance of international business for securities firms, with IPO fundraising in Hong Kong significantly exceeding the total for the previous year [2] - The non-bank financial sector index rose by 0.9% as of July 8, with notable increases in stocks such as Xiangcai Co., which rose over 7.5% [2] Group 3 - The average valuation of the non-bank financial sector remains low, providing a margin of safety, and the transformation of the securities industry is expected to bring new growth points [3] - Three investment themes are recommended: focusing on leading securities firms with strong comprehensive strength, firms with high earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [3] - Attention is also drawn to retail-focused securities firms and those with advantages in overseas business and financial technology [3]