金十整理：机构前瞻新西兰联储利率决议——料按兵不动，降息悬念留待日后？

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, leaving the possibility of easing for later consideration [1] Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Westpac anticipates that the RBNZ will keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a dovish stance, while remaining silent on the timing of any future actions [1] - ANZ forecasts that the RBNZ will hold rates steady, expecting a pause in rate cuts in October, followed by potential cuts in November and early next year [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the RBNZ is likely to keep rates unchanged, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a reduction to 3% in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - New Zealand Bank believes the RBNZ will maintain its current rate, as it is in a comfortable position, and market pricing will be a key factor in its decision-making [1] - ASB Bank suggests that the RBNZ will keep rates steady due to rising inflation pressures, emphasizing the need for assurance that short-term inflation will not elevate inflation expectations [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Nomura Securities estimates a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July, and if this occurs, the RBNZ is expected to signal a hawkish shift indicating a wait-and-see approach [1]