农行、建行等11家AH银行股续创新高，银行估值上限在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector shows mixed performance, with several AH bank stocks reaching historical highs, driven by strong demand for bank stocks amid low government bond yields and a persistent asset shortage [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Stock Performance - Eleven AH bank stocks, including Postal Savings Bank, Everbright Bank, and CITIC Bank, have reached new historical highs [1]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has seen a slight increase of 0.06%, with a year-to-date cumulative increase of 27.24%, outperforming the CSI Bank Total Return Index, which rose by 20.80% [1]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, totaling 580 million yuan this year, with a share increase of 454%, making it the top-performing bank ETF [1]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - Longjiang Securities suggests that a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1x and a 4% dividend yield do not impose valuation constraints on bank stocks [2]. - For state-owned banks, the dividend yield and the spread over government bonds are key pricing factors, with the AH index dividend yield at 5.58% and a valuation of 0.78x PB [3]. - If government bond yields decline further, it could lead to an increase in the valuation of state-owned banks and a decrease in dividend yields [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - National funds, including central Huijin, have heavily invested in eight bank stocks, including major state-owned banks and several nationwide joint-stock banks [7]. - Local state-owned capital has also been increasing its stake in local banks, with announcements from banks like Qingdao Bank and Suzhou Bank regarding continuous capital increases [8]. - Insurance funds have significantly increased their stock allocations, with stock investments accounting for 8.1% of total investments in Q1 2024, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Southbound funds have gained significant pricing power in the banking sector, with net purchases of 282 billion yuan in the past month and 2,143 billion yuan over the past year [12]. - The Bank AH Index, which includes both A-shares and H-shares, has shown a trend of higher dividend yields and lower valuations for H-shares compared to A-shares [13][15]. - The Bank AH Total Return Index has increased by 101.8% since its inception, outperforming the CSI Bank Total Return Index and the CSI 300 Total Return Index [15].