合成橡胶：装置突发意外 丁二烯反弹 提振BR上涨

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 8, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1060 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2400 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The basis is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 4, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.9%, an increase of 1.7% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene-butadiene rubber was 67%, an increase of 0.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 64.1%, a decrease of 8.9% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers was 61.5%, a decrease of 1.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 2, butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons, or 4.7% [3] - The inventory held by traders was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons, or 6.8% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 7, Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high-styrene-butadiene rubber unit, which has been under maintenance since late May, is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 8, there was a sudden impact on upstream facilities in East China, leading to a rebound in butadiene prices and a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,305 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.49% [5] - The cost side is supported by the restart of the butadiene unit at Lianyungang Petrochemical, with plans for the restart of the unit at Lucheng Petrochemical in mid-July [5] - Multiple butadiene units in Europe have also restarted, and an increase in butadiene exports from the U.S. to Asia is expected, with more ocean freight arriving at ports [5] - However, short-term butadiene port inventory is low, providing support for butadiene prices [5] - On the supply side, as butadiene gradually weakens, the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are expected to recover, limiting the downward space for operating rates [5] - On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates [5] - Overall, the short-term cost side remains supported, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, and the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to expectations of short-term fluctuations in BR prices [5]