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结束六连降!新西兰联储维持3.25%利率,通胀与全球不确定性成焦点
智通财经网·2025-07-09 03:01

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25%, ending a series of six consecutive rate cuts, which diverged from the expectations of most economists who predicted a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The RBNZ's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach due to the complex economic situation, where domestic demand is weak but inflation has shown signs of recovery [1] - The RBNZ indicated that future rate movements will depend on the pace of economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs [1] - The central bank noted that the cumulative effect of 225 basis points of rate cuts since last August has not fully materialized, and external pressures from U.S. trade policies contribute to its cautious stance on inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - New Zealand's inflation rate accelerated to 2.5% in the first quarter, with expectations that it may reach the upper limit of the 1-3% target range by mid-year, before gradually returning to the 2% target by early 2026 [1] - The first quarter GDP growth of 0.8% exceeded expectations, and there has been some improvement in business confidence, although the real estate and labor markets remain weak [2] - The RBNZ highlighted that rising export prices and lower interest rates support economic growth, but global policy uncertainties may delay recovery and alleviate inflation pressures [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the RBNZ's decision, the New Zealand dollar experienced a slight appreciation, with the USD/NZD exchange rate moving from 0.60 to 0.6008, before retreating to 0.5988 [2] - The decision to maintain rates was reached unanimously, contrasting with the previous meeting where a 5-1 vote favored a rate cut [2] - The RBNZ's pause in rate cuts aligns with a broader trend of diverging global monetary policies, as other central banks have entered easing cycles [3]