澳洲联储决议出人意料 澳元走强结束三连阴

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a sudden drop against the US dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: RBA's Decision and Economic Context - The RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was unexpected, as most economists anticipated a rate cut [1] - RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the effects of previous rate cuts have not yet fully materialized, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the RBA's decision was not aligned with the expectations of millions of Australians or the market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Despite the RBA's stance, the market is pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut in August, indicating a significant divergence between market expectations and the RBA's position [2] - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently trading around 0.6510, with technical analysis suggesting a potential recovery in bullish sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD may test key resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6533, with further gains potentially leading to a test of the eight-month high of 0.6590 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - The AUD/USD is positioned to test the lower boundary of its ascending channel near 0.6500, with a critical support level at the 50-day EMA of 0.6472 [3] - A break below this support could weaken medium-term price momentum, allowing the currency pair to approach a two-month low of 0.6372 [3]