印度6月进口量超预期 棕榈油盘面突破上涨

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a slight increase amid varying import dynamics and production forecasts. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 9, the domestic palm oil futures market showed positive performance, with the main contract opening at 8644.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 8692.00 CNY, marking a 1.52% increase [1] - As of July 8, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports was 100 tons, a decrease of 71.43% compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities stated that U.S. importers will bear the cost of increased palm oil tariffs, as there are no alternatives available in the U.S. market [1] - The European Commission reported that the EU's palm oil imports for the 2024/25 year reached 2.84 million tons, down from 3.49 million tons the previous year [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Huachuang Futures indicated that while increased imports of palm oil by India may support prices, the current production season is expected to limit upward price movement, with a forecast of weak demand in July [2] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures noted that the U.S. EPA is set to hold an online hearing regarding proposed rules, which could impact palm oil exports from Indonesia to the U.S., potentially reducing exports by 15%-20% [2] - Market expectations are influenced by the anticipated outcomes of the EPA hearing and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on the potential for price fluctuations in July [2]