人民币汇率韧性持续增强 会否重返7.1区间？

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in the future [3][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of mid-2025, the US dollar index has dropped by 10.8% since the beginning of the year, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, while the RMB has shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, hitting a seven-month high [1][3]. - The RMB against the US dollar has seen a cumulative increase of 298 basis points, with a rise of 0.41% in the middle rate, and over 1.8% in the onshore rate [3][5]. Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB's recent strength is a result of the weakening US dollar index, stable domestic fundamentals, and flexible central bank operations, alongside increased demand for currency exchange [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to stabilize the market and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [5][6]. Future Outlook for RMB - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index may continue to decline, which could support a moderate appreciation of the RMB [6]. - The Chinese economy's stable performance and increased cross-border capital inflows are expected to provide strong support for the RMB's exchange rate [6][8]. RMB Asset Appeal - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to stable economic growth in China and the resilience of its financial markets, leading to a shift of market funds away from US dollar assets [8][9]. - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency globally and the third-largest payment currency, reflecting its growing international status [8][9]. Internationalization of RMB - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with significant increases in cross-border RMB settlement volumes, particularly in securities investment [9][10]. - The PBOC has engaged in bilateral currency swap agreements with various countries, further promoting the use of RMB in international trade and finance [9].