任命“降息派”美联储主席特朗普便能如愿？没那么简单

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Trump considering appointing a new Fed chair to diminish Powell's influence [1] - Key contenders for the Fed chair position include Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, with speculation about Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also eyeing the role [1] - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's high interest rate policies, attributing them to hindering economic growth, and has called for immediate rate cuts from the next Fed chair [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that betting on immediate rate cuts following Powell's term overlooks the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which requires majority support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [2] - The FOMC consists of 19 policymakers, with 12 having voting rights, indicating that the new Fed chair must provide compelling reasons for rate cuts to gain support [2] - Disagreements among policymakers regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation contribute to differing views on rate cuts, complicating the decision-making process [2] Group 3 - The article notes that while policy disagreements are common, significant divisions in voting outcomes are rare in an institution that values consensus, especially during major policy shifts [3] - The necessity for consensus among committee members remains crucial regardless of who becomes the next Fed chair [3]