Down 30%, What's Next For BG Stock?

Core Insights - Bunge Global has seen a 32% decline in stock price over the past year, contrasting with a 12% increase in the S&P 500, primarily due to a significant drop in global crop prices [2] - The company reported a 40% year-over-year decrease in adjusted earnings for Q1 2025, leading to a revised full-year EPS forecast of $7.75 [2] - Despite low valuation multiples, Bunge underperforms in growth, profitability, financial stability, and downturn resilience, indicating deeper operational issues [2] Revenue Performance - Bunge Global's revenues have declined at an average rate of 5.7% over the past three years, while the S&P 500 has increased by 5.5% [3] - Revenues decreased by 10.9% from $58 billion to $51 billion in the last 12 months, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [3] - Quarterly revenues fell by 13.2% to $12 billion from $13 billion a year prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% improvement [3] Profitability Metrics - Bunge Global's operating income over the last four quarters was $1.4 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 2.7% [4] - The operating cash flow (OCF) during this period was $621 million, reflecting an OCF margin of 1.2%, compared to 14.9% for the S&P 500 [4] - The net income for the last four quarters was $1.1 billion, indicating a net income margin of 2.1%, versus 11.6% for the S&P 500 [4] Financial Stability - Bunge Global's debt stood at $7.7 billion, with a market capitalization of $10 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 71.2% [6] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $3.9 billion out of $27 billion in total assets, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 14.6% [6] Downturn Resilience - Bunge Global's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during recent downturns, including a 35.4% decline during the inflation shock of 2022 [7] - The stock has not regained its pre-crisis peak since the inflation shock, with a current trading price around $75 [7] - Historical performance shows a 47.8% drop during the COVID-19 pandemic and a 77.5% decline during the global financial crisis of 2008, both worse than the S&P 500 [8] Overall Assessment - Despite attractive valuation metrics, Bunge Global appears fundamentally fragile in growth, profitability, and resilience during downturns [9] - The stock remains a high-risk investment until there is evidence of improved commodity prices or operational performance [9]