Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-07-09 11:41Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices have been recovering since July, with limited fluctuations expected in the second half of the year, despite a weak demand-supply balance in the pig farming industry [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average sales price of listed pig companies declined year-on-year and month-on-month due to weak market conditions, with declines ranging from 15% to 20% [2][3]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) reported a significant increase in sales volume, achieving a record monthly high of 7.019 million pigs sold in June, with a revenue increase of 27.65% year-on-year [3][4]. - Smaller pig companies showed varied performance, with some doubling their sales while others experienced declines of over 10% [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average pig price in June hit a 16-month low, dropping to 13.96 yuan/kg, but began to recover in July, reaching 15.31 yuan/kg, the highest since the Spring Festival [2][5]. - The recent price rebound has improved breeding profits, with losses from purchased piglets decreasing to 26.26 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits increased to approximately 119.72 yuan per head [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current pig cycle has emerged from its bottom, but the industry remains in a state of oversupply, leading to slow recovery in profitability for listed companies [1][6]. - The government has been guiding the industry towards destocking and capacity reduction, with recent reports indicating that capacity control measures may have already begun [1][6][7]. - The number of breeding sows is a key variable affecting future pig prices, with the Ministry of Agriculture suggesting a reduction of around 1 million breeding sows to optimize production [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig farming industry may enter a new era of high-quality competition, with a focus on cost control and operational efficiency becoming critical for large-scale farming enterprises [6][7]. - The expected limited fluctuations in pig prices in the second half of the year will depend on consumer demand for pork, with policies likely to provide a price floor [7].