【财经分析】50%关税考验下 基本面或为铜价提供底部支撑

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. by President Trump has led to a significant initial spike in copper prices, followed by a notable decline, indicating market volatility and concerns over potential demand suppression due to increased tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX copper prices surged nearly 10% before experiencing a drop of over 2% following the tariff announcement, reflecting market uncertainty and the potential impact on demand [2]. - High U.S. copper inventories are raising concerns that the tariffs could exacerbate inventory surpluses, leading to further price adjustments [1][2]. - The strong U.S. dollar and the lack of macroeconomic support for the recent price surge are contributing to the downward pressure on copper prices [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tight supply of copper, coupled with low inventory levels, is expected to provide some support for copper prices despite the tariff-induced volatility [4]. - The price differential between U.S. and European copper futures has widened significantly, indicating a shift in trade flows and potential supply constraints in non-U.S. markets [3]. - The expectation of increased copper premiums in China suggests that domestic prices may exhibit resilience against downward pressures from tariffs [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring the potential for unexpected economic data or policy changes that could mitigate the downward pressure on copper prices from tariffs [5]. - The ongoing tightness in global copper supply, particularly from overseas mines and scrap copper, is likely to support prices in the medium term, despite the initial impact of tariffs [4].