两年涨超50%、三年10股翻倍，是时候关注银行股风险了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in the stock market, with significant gains over the past three years, leading to increased market capitalization and investor interest despite rising valuation concerns [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector index rose by 18.38% this year, outperforming the overall market by 14 percentage points [1]. - Over the past year, the banking sector's total market capitalization increased by approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with A-shares contributing over 3 trillion yuan [1]. - As of July 9, 2023, 34 out of 42 banking stocks closed higher, with notable gains from Xiamen Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [2]. Group 2: Stock Gains and Valuation - The banking sector has been a "dark horse," with a two-year gain exceeding 50% and a three-year gain around 38% [3][4]. - Ten banking stocks have doubled in price over the past three years, with Agricultural Bank of China leading with a 153% increase [4]. - The median price-to-book (PB) ratio for banking stocks remains below 0.7, indicating potential undervaluation despite some banks breaking the net asset value [7]. Group 3: Dividend and Investment Appeal - The banking sector is projected to distribute approximately 373.7 billion yuan in dividends for the 2024 fiscal year, with many banks already announcing their dividend plans [8]. - The high dividend yield remains attractive to long-term investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the current banking stock rally reflects a reassessment of the sector's fundamental stability, supported by regulatory policies and stable asset quality [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be gradually implemented, with a focus on fiscal measures over monetary policy [9]. - Concerns about rising non-performing loans and net interest margin pressures have been raised, but analysts argue that these risks are manageable [9][10]. - The banking sector is transitioning to a "weak cycle" model, indicating a shift in operational strategies and risk management [8].