美股二季度财报季来临 关税影响下企业盈利成关注焦点

Group 1 - Analysts predict a 5.8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 earnings for Q2, a significant decline from 13.7% in Q1 [1] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 22 times, higher than the 10-year average of 18 times, raising concerns about whether earnings growth can support higher stock prices [1] - The trade war initiated by President Trump has expanded, with increased tariffs announced for 14 countries and specific tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs notes that high tariffs have not yet pressured sales forecasts or corporate spending plans at the overall index level, but some companies may face profit margin risks if they absorb tariff costs [2] - The S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth forecast has stabilized after significant downward revisions in April, particularly for sectors like automotive and durable goods that are heavily impacted by tariffs [2] - The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has decreased by 4.4 percentage points over the past three months, compared to a three-year average decline of 3.5 percentage points [2] Group 3 - Lower earnings expectations may not be negative, as many S&P 500 companies typically exceed analyst forecasts, making it easier to surpass lower expectations [3] - A weaker dollar, which has depreciated about 7% in Q2 and 10% year-to-date, may benefit corporate earnings by making U.S. goods cheaper abroad [3] - The technology and communication services sectors are expected to see the highest year-over-year earnings growth in Q2, with technology projected to grow by 17.7% and communication services by 31.8% [3] Group 4 - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence remains high, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, positioning it as a potential highest-valued company in history [4]