Can New AI-Focused Leases Offset APLD's Cloud Segment Decline?

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is shifting its focus towards hyperscale data center leasing, particularly for AI infrastructure, as its Cloud Services segment struggles to achieve profitability [1][4] - APLD's third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues increased by 22% year-over-year to $52.9 million, but the Cloud business generated only $17.8 million, reflecting a sequential decline due to technical issues and a shift to on-demand capacity [1][9] - The Data Center Hosting segment is gaining traction, supported by significant financing agreements, including a $5 billion deal with Macquarie and a $375 million agreement with SMBC [2] Financial Performance - APLD's Cloud Services business incurred over $10 million in losses during the fiscal third quarter, facing competitive pressure from CoreWeave [3] - The company is exploring options to divest or spin out its Cloud Services business, which is seen as a hindrance to its leasing negotiations and potential REIT transition [3][4] - APLD's stock has increased by 20.7% year-to-date, contrasting with a 3.5% decline in the industry [8] Strategic Developments - APLD is developing its Ellendale campus with a planned 400MW critical IT load, with the first 100MW facility expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - A landmark $7 billion lease agreement with CoreWeave is expected to provide recurring revenues over 15 years, underscoring the economic potential of APLD's HPC infrastructure [2][9] - The company has a planned buildout of 1.4GW and is engaged in active lease discussions, although it faces execution risks related to high capital expenditures of $30–50 million per month [3] Valuation and Estimates - APLD trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.97X, which is above the industry average and its five-year median of 5.03X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APLD's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 73.6% [11]