Stantec Stock Skyrockets 39% Year to Date: Has it Run Too Far?

Core Insights - Stantec Inc. (STN) has achieved a 39% year-to-date gain, significantly outperforming the industry's 6% decline, while U.S. peers have shown mixed results [1][8] - The company is benefiting from strong global demand for infrastructure, water security, and climate-resilient solutions, supported by long-term trends such as climate change initiatives and increased infrastructure investments [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Stantec's net revenues grew by 13.3% year-over-year, with organic revenue increasing by 5.9% when excluding acquisitions and currency effects [4] - The U.S. market saw a 2.4% organic growth, while Canada experienced a 15% revenue increase year-over-year, with key contributions from wastewater projects and large industrial developments [5][4] - Globally, revenues rose by 20.3% year-over-year, with the U.K. water business growing over 20% and energy transition projects boosting results in Australia and New Zealand [5] Margin Expansion - Stantec demonstrated efficient growth with project margins improving by 10 basis points to 54.3% and adjusted EBITDA margins rising by 70 basis points to 16.2% in Q1 2025 [9][10] - Lower administrative and marketing expenses, along with a proactive hiring strategy, are expected to enhance workforce utilization and operating leverage in the future [10][11] Analyst Sentiment - There has been a notable increase in positive analyst sentiment, with five analysts raising their 2025 earnings estimates and another five upgrading projections for 2026 [12][16] - Earnings are projected to grow by 19.5% in 2025 and 12% in 2026, with revenue expectations lifted to an 11% increase in 2025 and a 10% gain in 2026 [12][14] Valuation Concerns - Stantec's forward P/E ratio stands at 26.74, above its five-year median of 22.56, raising concerns about its valuation compared to peers like Tetra Tech and AECOM [17] - The elevated valuation may limit upside potential unless the company delivers significant earnings outperformance [17][18]