Fuel Cell Tax Perk Could Supercharge Bloom Energy In 2026, Says JPMorgan

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse upgraded Bloom Energy Corp to Overweight from Neutral, raising the price forecast from $18 to $33 due to the unexpected eligibility of fuel cells for 48E tax credits under the finalized OBBB legislation, which could enhance revenue and margin expectations starting in fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 1: Revenue and Margin Expectations - The eligibility for 48E tax credits is expected to lead to increased revenue and margin expectations, surpassing the 19% year-over-year increase implied in the midpoint of FY25 guidance [1] - Improved factory utilization and stronger pricing power with data center clients, along with higher volumes from cost-sensitive customers, could further enhance product margins [2][3] Group 2: Financial Projections - Strouse projects FY26 pro forma EBITDA of $420 million on $2.21 billion in revenue, compared to $275 million on $2.04 billion this year, with Street estimates at $319 million and $2.09 billion respectively [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Bloom Energy's second-quarter commentary is viewed as more positive than peers following the finalization of the OBBB, although uncertainty remains around safe harbor provisions from the July 7 Executive Order, which may affect investor sentiment in solar and wind [4] - Potential risks include the absence of a permanent CFO, which could shift priorities towards growth over profitability, and the possibility of customers deferring FY25 orders to take advantage of the 48E credits starting in January 2026 [5]