高分红折射市场共建共享新生态

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs projects that by the end of 2025, Chinese onshore and offshore listed companies will distribute a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, reaching a historic high, which is expected to attract more global investors and enhance the valuation of Chinese listed companies [1] - The record dividend scale serves as an important window to observe the deep transformation of China's capital market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where asset allocation is becoming increasingly challenging [1][2] - The introduction of the new "National Nine Articles" in 2024 is expected to push China's capital market into a "return-focused" new phase, establishing mechanisms linking dividends to share reductions and implementing warning systems for companies with low dividend payouts [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Active dividend distribution by listed companies is creating predictable cash flow returns for investors, effectively reversing the imbalance in the A-share market that previously favored financing over returns [2] - The trend of generous dividends is attracting long-term capital into the market, leading to significant changes in market funding structure, with the scale of dividend index funds in 2024 more than doubling year-on-year [2] - Approximately 40% of investors prefer companies with stable and high dividend payouts, and over 80% of fund managers are increasingly focusing on dividend factors when selecting stocks [2] - The average dividend payout ratio for A-shares has risen to 37.78%, with 1,277 companies exceeding a 50% payout ratio, indicating a shift towards a more dividend-driven investment logic [1][2] - As of March 31, A-share listed companies have cash reserves exceeding 18 trillion yuan, providing a solid foundation for sustained dividend payments [3] - The market is witnessing a self-reinforcing cycle of "quality enterprises - stable dividends - valuation enhancement," with 33 companies distributing over 10 billion yuan in dividends [3] - The shift of dividends from an "optional" to a "mandatory" aspect reflects the acceleration of China's capital market towards a new stage of high-quality development [4]