芯片需求强劲，三星为何蹒跚？

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is facing significant challenges in its semiconductor business, with a projected operating profit of 4.6 trillion KRW for Q2, a 55.94% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest profit in six quarters [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected operating profit of 4.6 trillion KRW is below the analyst consensus of 6.36 trillion KRW [1]. - The semiconductor division's operating profit is estimated to be around 500 billion KRW, down over 90% year-on-year [3]. - Samsung's stock price fell by 1.13% following the earnings announcement, although it has risen approximately 16% year-to-date, lagging behind other major memory chip manufacturers [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in profits is attributed to inventory value adjustments and U.S. restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China [1]. - Samsung's delay in supplying high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to its major U.S. client, Nvidia, has also contributed to the profit drop [1]. - The company is losing its competitive edge in the HBM chip market to rivals like SK Hynix and Micron [1][3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Samsung's semiconductor business is described as struggling, with the company ceding its leadership in memory chips to SK Hynix due to slow responses in HBM chip production [3]. - In the global foundry market, TSMC holds a dominant 67.6% market share, while Samsung's share is only 7.7% [3]. - Samsung is facing increasing competition pressures and must achieve breakthroughs in AI chip technology to reverse its performance decline [4]. Group 4: External Factors - U.S. trade policy uncertainties, including a proposed 25% tariff on all South Korean products starting August 1, are raising concerns about Samsung's smartphone and home appliance businesses [4]. - The strengthening of the Korean won, which has appreciated about 7% against the U.S. dollar this year, is impacting Samsung's price competitiveness [4]. - Despite current challenges, analysts suggest that new smartphone releases and increased HBM chip sales to clients like Broadcom may support a recovery in Samsung's performance [4].