Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreement among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the future of interest rates, with most officials concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A minority of officials support an immediate rate cut, while the majority remain cautious, with some suggesting that no cuts are necessary this year [1][2]. - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [1]. Inflation Concerns - Officials express significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions on inflation forecasts [1][2]. - Some officials believe that if the labor market weakens or if tariff-induced inflation is mild and temporary, a rate cut could be justified [2]. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The rapid changes in economic policy, including tariffs and other reforms, complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Most economists anticipate that tariffs will increase inflation and suppress economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [2]. Future Monitoring - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15, with some indicating a willingness to consider a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [3]. - Despite uncertainties, most officials agree that the overall U.S. economy remains stable, allowing for patience in adjusting monetary policy [4].
美联储纪要:关税政策加剧经济不确定性 官员对降息持审慎立场
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-09 23:20