美国关税政策引爆全球铜库存“大搬家” 纽约—伦敦期铜价差套利交易沸腾

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. President has led to significant volatility in copper markets, with COMEX copper prices soaring while LME prices fell, creating a substantial price differential that traders are exploiting through arbitrage strategies [2][3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper futures saw a one-day increase of over 17%, marking the largest single-day gain in history, while LME copper contracts experienced a decline, resulting in a price differential exceeding $2,600 per ton [2][3]. - Traders, including CTA fund managers, have engaged in cross-market arbitrage by buying LME copper while shorting COMEX copper to lock in profits from the price differential [2][6]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. tariff is expected to shift copper inventories from London to New York, as traders seek to capitalize on the price differential, with estimates suggesting over 500,000 tons of copper have already moved to the U.S. [3][5]. - LME copper inventories have decreased significantly, dropping to 90,625 tons by June 30, down from 271,350 tons at the beginning of the year, while COMEX inventories increased to 211,209 tons, reflecting a shift in supply dynamics [5]. Trade and Export Trends - The anticipated tariffs have led to a surge in copper exports from China, with exports reaching 15,770 tons in June, surpassing previous records, as domestic producers seek to alleviate inventory pressures [9]. - The ongoing shift in global copper supply dynamics has resulted in tightening inventories in non-U.S. regions, prompting copper smelters to lower processing fees due to increased operational costs [9][10]. Future Outlook - The current speculative environment in the COMEX copper market is heavily influenced by the tariff announcement, with concerns that rising U.S. copper inventories could lead to a price correction in the near future [7][10]. - Analysts suggest that the final implementation of the 50% tariff will have significant implications for global copper prices, potentially increasing volatility in domestic markets as well [10].