新能源深度增量替代 风光装机规模首超火电

Core Insights - China's electricity demand has shown rapid growth since the "14th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual increase of 7.0% from 2020 to 2024, and a projected growth of 4.6%-5.4% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - The carbon emission intensity of China's power system has significantly decreased due to the rapid development of renewable energy, with wind and solar power leading the transition towards a greener industry [1][6] - The approval of new coal power projects has shown a U-shaped trend during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and an inverted U-shaped trend since the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the total approved capacity reaching approximately 2.89 million kilowatts by the first quarter of 2025, nearly double that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Electricity Demand and Supply - The peak electricity load in 2024 is projected to be 1.45 billion kilowatts, while the total installed power capacity is expected to reach 3.35 billion kilowatts, with thermal power accounting for 1.44 billion kilowatts [4] - The increasing peak load characteristics necessitate a dynamic balance between electricity supply and demand, highlighting the urgency for multiple measures to ensure stability in the power system [1][4] Renewable Energy Development - By the first quarter of 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.48 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time [6] - In 2024, wind and solar power accounted for approximately 83.1% of the newly installed power capacity, with renewable energy contributing about 86% of the total new electricity generation [6][7] Coal Power Approval Trends - In 2024, the newly approved coal power capacity is estimated at 62.24 million kilowatts, a decrease of about 41.5% compared to 2023, marking the first decline in coal power approvals since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The approval of coal power projects has shifted from eastern provinces to western regions rich in wind and solar resources, reflecting a change in regional energy strategies [3][7] Future Outlook - The transition towards a low-carbon power system will continue during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on enhancing the capacity of flexible coal power and increasing the reliability of renewable energy sources [7][8] - The need for optimizing the layout of rapid adjustment resources to meet the fluctuating characteristics of renewable energy is emphasized, aiming to significantly improve the system's adjustment capabilities [8]