全球航运与供应链在关税不确定性中“漂泊”

Core Insights - The U.S. President has extended the "reciprocal tariff" deferral period to August 1, which is expected to impact global shipping and supply chains significantly [1] - The extension has not led to a new surge in imports, with Los Angeles port data showing a 5% year-on-year decline in TEU volume for May and an anticipated 27% decline in July [1] - High inventory levels among U.S. retailers, resulting from a previous import rush, are contributing to weak shipping demand and falling freight rates, with container shipping costs down 5.7% month-on-month and over 20% from peak levels [1] Shipping Industry Challenges - Shipping giant Maersk has noted that declining policy transparency and changing deadlines are affecting transportation decisions, with an average tariff burden of approximately 21% [2] - Geopolitical conflicts are also raising insurance costs, with war risk insurance rates increasing, particularly for Israeli ports, which have surged to 0.7% [4] - Companies are advised to adopt multi-faceted strategies to navigate these challenges, including renegotiating with freight forwarders, testing crisis plans, optimizing transportation in high-risk areas, diversifying supply chains, adjusting pricing efficiency, and expanding insurance coverage [4] Long-term Implications - The trend of rising costs due to tariff policies is likely to impact global manufacturing and consumers, with the restructuring of supply chains facing uncertainties and challenges from both policy and geopolitical factors [4]