上半年一二线城市住宅用地出让金增长均超40%

Core Insights - The residential land transfer revenue for 300 cities in the first half of 2025 reached 0.86 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [1] - The land transfer revenue in first-tier and second-tier cities grew by over 40%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a slight decline [1] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national residential land transfer revenue, with Hangzhou and Beijing each surpassing 100 billion yuan in land transfer revenue [1][2] City Performance - First-tier cities showed significant investment activity from real estate companies, with land transfer revenue increasing by 49.5% year-on-year [2] - Second-tier cities also saw growth in land transfer revenue and transaction area, with increases of 43.5% and 18.3% respectively, and an average premium rate of 13.6% [2] - The land transfer revenue concentration in the top 20 cities increased from 51% in 2024 to approximately 68% in the first half of 2025 [2] Premium Rates and Market Trends - The average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities was 13.4% in Q1, dropping to 7.7% in Q2, with a further decline to 5.8% in June [1] - In the first half of the year, 39.2% of residential land transactions in 22 key cities were premium sales, an increase of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average premium rates for land in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu were notably high, with Hangzhou reaching 35.5% and several transactions exceeding 40% [3] Future Outlook - The trend of "reducing quantity and improving quality" in land supply is expected to continue in the second half of the year, particularly in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [3] - The land market in most third and fourth-tier cities is likely to remain dominated by base-price transactions, with some cities potentially adjusting supply structures to attract investment [3] - Real estate companies are advised to focus on core cities with high market certainty while balancing new and existing projects, avoiding high-priced land acquisitions [3]