韩国央行按兵不动！维持利率在2.5%不变，房价上涨和关税成为焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% amid rising housing prices and economic threats from U.S. tariffs, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy while monitoring the effects of previous easing measures [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Korea has kept the 7-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.5%, aligning with the expectations of 19 surveyed economists [1]. - The central bank has lowered interest rates twice this year and four times in the last quarter of the previous year, reflecting concerns over rapid easing potentially leading to a real estate boom similar to the post-pandemic period [1][4]. - Economists anticipate a possible rate cut in August, suggesting that fiscal expansion may necessitate policy coordination [4]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - One of the most pressing challenges for the South Korean economy is managing the impact of U.S. tariffs, with a comprehensive tariff on Korean goods set to increase to 25% on August 1 [4]. - Specific tariffs on the automotive and steel industries continue to pose significant obstacles to economic growth [4]. - The central bank is expected to remain vigilant regarding trade developments while monitoring the real estate market [4]. Group 3: Housing Market Dynamics - Recent months have seen a surge in mortgage growth, with June recording the largest increase in housing loans in nine months [5]. - The housing price expectation index rose to its highest level since October 2021, indicating a potential resurgence in the real estate market [5]. - The government has introduced new regulations to limit the maximum mortgage amounts in the Seoul metropolitan area, though the effectiveness of these measures in curbing household borrowing risks remains uncertain [5].