欧元涨势引央行内部分歧

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a complex balancing act regarding the recent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, with differing opinions among its decision-makers on the implications for monetary policy [1] Group 1: ECB Officials' Perspectives - ECB Vice President Guindos warns that if the euro exceeds the psychological level of 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the monetary policy environment [1] - Executive Board member Smets emphasizes the need to closely monitor the speed of euro appreciation, suggesting that rapid increases could impact inflation targets [1] - In contrast, the central bank governors of Portugal and Estonia express a more optimistic view, stating that the current exchange rate reflects improvements in the eurozone's economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The ongoing interest from international investors in euro-denominated assets is seen as beneficial for enhancing the euro's status as a reserve currency, which could positively impact long-term financial stability in the eurozone [1] - The divergence in policy stances highlights the ECB's multiple considerations in addressing exchange rate fluctuations, balancing short-term impacts on exports and inflation with long-term strategic benefits of euro internationalization [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is identified at 1.1717, with further support seen at the early 2025 high of 1.1631; a break below this could lead to deeper declines towards the 1.1500 area [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1830, followed by the 1.1900 region, which previously served as a peak from July to September 2021; a clear breakout above this area could target the psychological level of 1.2000 [2]