【环球财经】日本央行或推迟加息至明年3月 日元面临抛压

Core Viewpoint - The interest of forex traders in the Japanese yen is declining due to concerns over the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the economy, leading to reduced expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan, is expected to negatively impact Japanese exports and may force the BOJ to lower its economic growth forecast in its quarterly outlook on July 31 [1]. - According to Daiwa Securities, the proposed 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods could lead to a cumulative reduction of 1.1% in Japan's real GDP [2]. - The real GDP growth rate for Japan is projected to slow significantly to 0.1%-0.2% in FY2025, down from 0.8% in FY2024, due to the anticipated effects of tariffs [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The BOJ is likely to delay interest rate hikes until it can confirm whether companies will continue to increase wages and capital expenditures [1]. - Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai indicated that the BOJ may hold off on rate hikes at least until March next year to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1]. - The BOJ aims to eventually raise rates to at least 1%, ideally reaching 1.5%, but current tariff issues complicate the justification for such increases [2].