政策预期强化 焦煤盘面后续仍有小幅上涨的可能

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, driven by strong demand from downstream steel companies and a rebound in spot prices due to active trading in the futures market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, coking coal futures saw a significant increase of 2.79%, reaching 884.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The average daily production of raw coal increased by 38,000 tons to 1.918 million tons, while the average daily production of premium coal rose by 26,000 tons to 765,000 tons, both hitting seven-week highs [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was reported at 85.5%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period [2]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in July due to the closure of the border during the Naadam Festival from July 10 to 17, which will further reduce imports of Mongolian coal [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends - In the Luliang market, the auction for low-sulfur coking coal saw a starting price of 1,040 yuan/ton, with a transaction average of 1,123 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 123 yuan/ton from the previous auction on June 25 [2]. - The overall sentiment in the spot market remains positive, with expectations of slight price increases in the futures market, contingent on potential regulatory changes in Shanxi province before September [3].